Sep 21st 2013 | SHANGHAI |From the print edition
IS TENCENT one of the world’s greatest internet firms? There are grounds for scepticism. The Chinese gaming and social-media firm started in the same way many local internet firms have: by copying Western success. QQ, its instant-messaging service, was a clone of ICQ, an Israeli invention acquired by AOL of America. And unlike global internet giants such as Google and Twitter, Tencent still makes its money in its protected home market.
騰訊是世界上最大的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司之一嗎?有持懷疑態(tài)度的理由。這個(gè)中國(guó)游戲和社交媒體公司跟許多本土互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司一樣以同樣的方式起步：通過(guò)抄襲西方的成功模式。騰訊的即時(shí)通訊服務(wù)QQ是一家被美國(guó)AOL收購(gòu)的以色列發(fā)明的ICQ的翻版。而區(qū)別于谷歌和twitter等全球互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭，騰訊仍然只在受保護(hù)的本土市場(chǎng)圈錢。
Yet the Chinese firm’s stockmarket valuation briefly crossed the $100 billion mark this week for the first time. Given that the valuation of Facebook, the world’s leading social-media firm, itself crossed that threshold only a few weeks ago, it is reasonable to wonder whether Tencent is worth so much. However, Tencent now has bigger revenues and profits than Facebook. In the first half of this year Tencent enjoyed revenues of $4.5 billion and gross profits of $2.5 billion, whereas Facebook saw revenues of $3.3 billion and gross profits of $935m.
然而，這家中國(guó)公司的股市估值這周首次超過(guò)了1000億美元大關(guān)。鑒于全球領(lǐng)先的社交媒體公司facebook的估值只在幾周之前才跨過(guò)這道門檻，所以換衣騰訊的市值是有道理的。然而，騰訊現(xiàn)在的收入和利潤(rùn)都比f(wàn)acebook多。今年前半年騰訊營(yíng)收達(dá)到45億美元，而總利潤(rùn)達(dá)到25億美元，而facebook營(yíng)收只有33億美元，總利潤(rùn)只有9.35億美元。
The Chinese firm’s market value reflects the phenomenal rise in its share price. A study out this week from the Boston Consulting Group found that Tencent had the highest shareholder total return (share-price appreciation plus dividends) of any large firm globally from 2008 to 2012—topping Amazon and even Apple.
這家中國(guó)公司的市場(chǎng)價(jià)值反映在其股價(jià)的驚人崛起上。這周波士頓咨詢集團(tuán)的一項(xiàng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，自2008年到2012年，在全球所有大公司中，騰訊擁有最高的股東總回報(bào)(股價(jià)升值加上分紅)，超過(guò)了亞馬遜甚至蘋果。
Tencent has created a better business model than its Western peers. Many internet firms build a customer base by giving things away, be they search results or social-networking tools. They then seek to monetise their users, usually turning to online advertising. Google is a glorious example. Other firms try to make e-commerce work. But as the case of revenue-rich but profit-poor Amazon suggests, this can also be a hard slog.
騰訊比起西方同行創(chuàng)造了一個(gè)更好的商業(yè)模式。許多互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司基于送給人們東西作為搜索結(jié)果或者社交工具來(lái)讓其成為消費(fèi)者。他們接著尋求在他們用戶身上套現(xiàn)，通常是提供在線廣告。谷歌就是一個(gè)光輝典范。其他公司嘗試電子商務(wù)活動(dòng)。但是收入豐富但是利潤(rùn)甚微的亞馬遜表明這也是一條艱難的路。
Tencent does give its services away: QQ is used by 800m people, and its WeChat social-networking app (which initially resembled America’s WhatsApp) has several hundred million users. What makes it different from Western rivals is the way it uses these to peddle online games and other revenue-raising offerings.
騰訊也給用戶提供服務(wù)，有8億人使用QQ，其微信社交應(yīng)用(最初類似于Whatsapp)有幾百萬(wàn)用戶。其區(qū)別于西方對(duì)手的招數(shù)在于使用這些工具兜售在線游戲以及其他增加收入的服務(wù)。
Once users are hooked on a popular game, Tencent then persuades them to pay for “value-added services” such as fancy weapons, snazzy costumes for their avatars and online VIP rooms. Whereas its peers are still making most of their money from advertising, Fathom China, a research firm, reckons Tencent gets 80% of its revenues from such kit (see chart).
一旦用戶迷上一個(gè)受歡迎的游戲，騰訊就會(huì)勸說(shuō)他們?yōu)樵鲋捣⻊?wù)付錢，比如更花哨的武器，他們卡通形象時(shí)髦的衣服還有在線VIP房間。鑒于其通航扔人通過(guò)廣告賺錢，一家調(diào)查公司Fathom China認(rèn)為騰訊通過(guò)上述工具的收益占到總收益的80%。
This year China has overtaken America to become the world’s biggest e-commerce market, in terms of sales. It is also now the biggest market for smartphones. This means it may soon have the world’s dominant market in “m-commerce”, purchases on mobile devices.
今年中國(guó)超過(guò)美國(guó)成為世界上銷售額最大的電子商務(wù)市場(chǎng)�，F(xiàn)在中國(guó)也是世界上最大的智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)。這意味著中國(guó)可能很快成為世界上移動(dòng)支付市場(chǎng)的主導(dǎo)市場(chǎng)。
Tencent’s main rivals in Chinese m-commerce are Baidu, which dominates search on desktop computers (helped by the government’s suppression of Google) and Alibaba, an e-commerce giant now preparing for a huge share offering. All three have gone on acquisition sprees, in an attempt to lead the market. The big worry for investors is the cost of this arms race.
騰訊在中國(guó)移動(dòng)支付市場(chǎng)的最大對(duì)手是百度，主導(dǎo)了桌面電腦搜索市場(chǎng)(受益于中國(guó)政府對(duì)谷歌的鎮(zhèn)壓)，還有阿里巴巴，現(xiàn)在準(zhǔn)備上市的電商巨頭。這三個(gè)公司正在進(jìn)行瘋狂收購(gòu)，試圖主導(dǎo)市場(chǎng)。投資者最大的擔(dān)憂就是這場(chǎng)軍備競(jìng)賽的成本。
Alibaba recently invested $300m in AutoNavi, an online-mapping firm, and nearly $600m in Sina Weibo, China’s equivalent of Twitter. Baidu has been even more ambitious, spending $1.85 billion to buy 91 Wireless, the country’s biggest third-party store for smartphone apps, and $370m for PPS, an online-video firm.
阿里巴巴最近向高德地圖投資3億美元，向新浪微博投資6億美元。百度更有野心，花費(fèi)18.5億美元購(gòu)買了中國(guó)最大的第三方智能手機(jī)軟件商店91無(wú)線，同時(shí)花費(fèi)3.7億美元購(gòu)買了在線視頻公司PPS。
Tencent may have an edge over its two rivals in m-commerce because of the wild popularity of WeChat, which is used on mobile phones. But to ensure it stays in the race, it is also spending heavily. On September 16th it said it will spend $448m to acquire a big stake in Sogou, an online-search firm; it plans to merge its own flagging search engine (aptly named Soso) into the venture. It had previously invested in Didi Dache, China’s largest taxi-hailing app, and is rumoured to be interested in online travel and dating firms too.
騰訊在移動(dòng)支付方面比起它的兩個(gè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手可能有優(yōu)勢(shì)，由于微信在智能手機(jī)上的流行。但是為了保證其留在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中，騰訊也花費(fèi)重金。9月16日，騰訊表示它將花費(fèi)4.48億美元購(gòu)買在線搜索公司搜狗一大筆股份，計(jì)劃將其萎靡不振的搜索引擎搜搜合并到合資企業(yè)中。此前，騰訊投資中國(guó)最大的打車應(yīng)用滴滴打車，傳言對(duì)在線旅游和約會(huì)公司也有興趣。
The three Goliaths are buying up innovative firms because they are too big and bureaucratic to create things themselves, mutter some entrepreneurs (presumably not those being bought out handsomely). A more pressing worry for Tencent’s shareholders is that its lavish spending, on top of heavy investment in improving its unimpressive e-commerce offerings, will eat into profits. Worse, the m-commerce arms race risks distracting it from gaming and value-added services, the cash cows that are paying for everything else. A $100 billion valuation might then seem too rich.
一些企業(yè)家說(shuō)到，這三個(gè)巨頭購(gòu)買創(chuàng)新型企業(yè)因?yàn)樗麄兲筇倭牛茈y自己創(chuàng)造事物。大概不是出資那些被收購(gòu)的公司之口。騰訊股東更擔(dān)心的是公司花費(fèi)大量資金，投資改善其不起眼的電子商務(wù)產(chǎn)品會(huì)侵吞利潤(rùn)。更糟糕的是，移動(dòng)支付市場(chǎng)的軍備競(jìng)賽風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分散了其在游戲和增值服務(wù)商的注意力，公司正在投資其他東西。1000億美元的估值可能太高了。
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